{"best_oa_location":{"endpoint_id":null,"evidence":"deprecated","host_type":"publisher","is_best":true,"license":"cc-by","oa_date":"2024-10-09","pmh_id":null,"repository_institution":null,"updated":"deprecated","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9","url_for_landing_page":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9","url_for_pdf":null,"version":"publishedVersion"},"data_standard":2,"doi":"10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9","doi_url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9","first_oa_location":{"endpoint_id":null,"evidence":"deprecated","host_type":"publisher","is_best":true,"license":"cc-by","oa_date":"2024-10-09","pmh_id":null,"repository_institution":null,"updated":"deprecated","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9","url_for_landing_page":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9","url_for_pdf":null,"version":"publishedVersion"},"genre":"journal-article","has_repository_copy":true,"is_oa":true,"is_paratext":false,"journal_is_in_doaj":false,"journal_is_oa":false,"journal_issn_l":"0028-0836","journal_issns":"0028-0836,1476-4687","journal_name":"Nature","oa_locations":[{"endpoint_id":null,"evidence":"deprecated","host_type":"publisher","is_best":true,"license":"cc-by","oa_date":"2024-10-09","pmh_id":null,"repository_institution":null,"updated":"deprecated","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9","url_for_landing_page":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9","url_for_pdf":null,"version":"publishedVersion"},{"endpoint_id":"442b8c34bc093721559","evidence":"deprecated","host_type":"repository","is_best":false,"license":"cc-by","oa_date":"2024-10-09","pmh_id":"oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/d7fa0ebe-7340-46b4-bc74-c8cfbfd9dd3e","repository_institution":"University of Bristol","updated":"deprecated","url":"https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/d7fa0ebe-7340-46b4-bc74-c8cfbfd9dd3e","url_for_landing_page":"https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/d7fa0ebe-7340-46b4-bc74-c8cfbfd9dd3e","url_for_pdf":null,"version":"publishedVersion"},{"endpoint_id":"ac9de7698155b820de7","evidence":"deprecated","host_type":"repository","is_best":false,"license":"cc-by","oa_date":"2024-10-09","pmh_id":"oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:11464373","repository_institution":"National Institutes of Health","updated":"deprecated","url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/11464373","url_for_landing_page":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/11464373","url_for_pdf":null,"version":"submittedVersion"},{"endpoint_id":"666bcee5557de5c06e5","evidence":"deprecated","host_type":"repository","is_best":false,"license":"cc-by","oa_date":"2024-10-09","pmh_id":"oai:jupiter.its.unimelb.edu.au:11343/355468","repository_institution":"The University of Melbourne","updated":"deprecated","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9.","url_for_landing_page":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9.","url_for_pdf":null,"version":"submittedVersion"},{"endpoint_id":"442b8c34bc093721559","evidence":"deprecated","host_type":"repository","is_best":false,"license":"cc-by","oa_date":"2024-10-09","pmh_id":"oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire/d7fa0ebe-7340-46b4-bc74-c8cfbfd9dd3e","repository_institution":"University of Bristol","updated":"deprecated","url":"https://hdl.handle.net/1983/d7fa0ebe-7340-46b4-bc74-c8cfbfd9dd3e","url_for_landing_page":"https://hdl.handle.net/1983/d7fa0ebe-7340-46b4-bc74-c8cfbfd9dd3e","url_for_pdf":null,"version":"submittedVersion"}],"oa_locations_embargoed":[],"oa_status":"hybrid","published_date":"2024-10-09","publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","title":"Overconfidence in climate overshoot","updated":"2026-08-08T02:10:32Z","year":2024,"z_authors":[{"author_position":"first","is_corresponding":true,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany. schleussner@iiasa.ac.at","Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universit\u00e4t zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany. schleussner@iiasa.ac.at","International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. schleussner@iiasa.ac.at"],"raw_author_name":"Carl-Friedrich Schleussner"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany","Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universit\u00e4t zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany","International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria"],"raw_author_name":"Gaurav Ganti"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany","Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universit\u00e4t zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany"],"raw_author_name":"Quentin Lejeune"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria","Laboratoire des Sciences du Climate et de l'Environnement, LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France"],"raw_author_name":"Biqing Zhu"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany","Research Unit for Sustainability and Climate Risks, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany"],"raw_author_name":"Peter Pfleiderer"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universit\u00e4t zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany","Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK","Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany"],"raw_author_name":"Ruben Pr\u00fctz"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Laboratoire des Sciences du Climate et de l'Environnement, LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France"],"raw_author_name":"Philippe Ciais"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland","Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland"],"raw_author_name":"Thomas L. Fr\u00f6licher"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universit\u00e4t zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany","Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany","Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany"],"raw_author_name":"Sabine Fuss"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria"],"raw_author_name":"Thomas Gasser"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany","International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria"],"raw_author_name":"Matthew J. Gidden"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Z\u00fcrich, Z\u00fcrich, Switzerland","Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Z\u00fcrich, Switzerland"],"raw_author_name":"Chahan M. Kropf"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland","Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland","Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland"],"raw_author_name":"Fabrice Lacroix"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK"],"raw_author_name":"Robin Lamboll"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany","Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universit\u00e4t zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany"],"raw_author_name":"Rosanne Martyr"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria","School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK"],"raw_author_name":"Fabien Maussion"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Z\u00fcrich, Z\u00fcrich, Switzerland","Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Z\u00fcrich, Switzerland"],"raw_author_name":"Jamie W. McCaughey"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate Resource, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia","International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria","School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"raw_author_name":"Malte Meinshausen"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany"],"raw_author_name":"Matthias Mengel"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate Resource, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia","International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria","School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"],"raw_author_name":"Zebedee Nicholls"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Z\u00fcrich, Z\u00fcrich, Switzerland"],"raw_author_name":"Yann Quilcaille"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway"],"raw_author_name":"Benjamin Sanderson"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Z\u00fcrich, Z\u00fcrich, Switzerland"],"raw_author_name":"Sonia I. Seneviratne"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway","Research Unit for Sustainability and Climate Risks, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany"],"raw_author_name":"Jana Sillmann"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria","Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK","School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK"],"raw_author_name":"Christopher J. Smith"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway"],"raw_author_name":"Norman J. Steinert"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany","Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universit\u00e4t zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany","Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK"],"raw_author_name":"Emily Theokritoff"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK"],"raw_author_name":"Rachel Warren"},{"author_position":"middle","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK"],"raw_author_name":"Jeff Price"},{"author_position":"last","is_corresponding":false,"raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK","Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK","International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria"],"raw_author_name":"Joeri Rogelj"}]}
